Guide

When is the right time to order a heat pump?

Updated

Demand for air-to-air pumps has two peaks: the summer heat and the January–February cold snap. Ground-source drilling clusters in spring and summer, and the solar selling season runs March to May. The one certain date is 31 December, because the household tax credit is granted for the year in which the work is paid for (Verohallinto, 10 February 2026).

Air-to-air: two peaks, not one

Two peaks: the cooling rush in a hot summer, and a cold snap plus an electricity price spike in winter. Summer 2026 was slightly below average and sales still grew 63 %, so summer must not be treated as the only season. Heat drives air-to-air demand: in hot summers installation queues have stretched to months and popular models have run out at importers. Summer 2026 had 35 hot days against a long-term average of 36, and queues were about two weeks instead of the four to six of a hot summer. (Ilmatieteen laitos, 1 September 2026) So if you want the installation in a week rather than in six, order outside the heat wave. A cold snap and an electricity price spike drive every heating category. SULPU names a cold winter as one of the reasons for the growth in the first half of 2026. (SULPU, 11 August 2026)

The market is growing, and that lengthens queues

SULPU reports about 74,000 heat pumps delivered in the first half of 2026, up 63% (SULPU, 11 August 2026). In 2025 deliveries were about 112,000, up 10.7% (SULPU, 23 January 2026), after the market had fallen 13.7% the year before (SULPU, 22 January 2025). A new structural driver: SULPU names the start of the air-to-air replacement market as the leading growth reason for the first half of 2026, against an installed base of nearly two million pumps. Replacement demand is not seasonal the way first purchases are; it is driven by equipment age and failure. (SULPU, 11 August 2026) SULPU counts units delivered to the trade, not units installed.

Ground source: the drilling season is what installers say

Installers report that most drilling happens in April–June, so the round of quotes is worth starting as early as in February–March. Drilling and design capacity is limited, which is why spring queues stretch into months. To be plain about it: this seasonality is what contractors say, not a measured statistic — nobody in Finland publishes month-level sales data. The same goes for their claim that drilling carries no winter surcharge.

Solar: spring is the seller’s window

Sellers run their solar campaigns mostly in April–June, which is a vendor observation rather than a measured demand curve. What is measured is this: detached-house installations fell from 30,000 systems in 2023 to about 6,500 in 2025 (Energiavirasto, 2026). Installers therefore have more time even in the spring season than they had three years ago.

The one hard date is 31 December

The household tax credit is granted for the year in which the invoice was paid, so every heating and solar project has a hard 31 December boundary (Verohallinto, 10 February 2026). It is the market’s one annual peak that does not depend on the weather. In a housing company the calendar is set by the general meeting: the annual meeting must be held within six months of the end of the financial year, and since most run a calendar year, meetings cluster in April–May (Asunto-osakeyhtiölaki 1599/2009, 2009). The section number has not been confirmed against Finlex.

Heat pump and solar installers

355 installers

Ask for the installation week in writing when you request a quote: the seasonal queue is the one thing a price does not show.

See all: Air-to-air heat pumps →

Read on

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

When are air-to-air installation queues shortest?

+

Heat drives air-to-air demand: in hot summers installation queues have stretched to months and popular models have run out at importers. Summer 2026 had 35 hot days against a long-term average of 36, and queues were about two weeks instead of the four to six of a hot summer. (Ilmatieteen laitos, 1 September 2026)

Is winter a good time to order ground source?

+

There is no statistic on the seasonality. Installers report most drilling happening in April–June and say drilling carries no winter surcharge; neither claim is published by anyone. What is documented is the growth: about 74,000 heat pumps were delivered in the first half of 2026, up 63% (SULPU, 11 August 2026).

Are heat pump sales growing?

+

Yes. About 74,000 heat pumps were delivered in the first half of 2026, up 63% (SULPU, 11 August 2026). SULPU counts units delivered to the trade, not units installed.

Why pay for the work before the year ends?

+

The credit is granted for the year in which the invoice was paid, not the year the work was done (Verohallinto, 10 February 2026). An invoice paid after 31 December moves the whole credit into the next tax year.

When does a housing company decide on a heating retrofit?

+

At the annual general meeting, which must be held within six months of the end of the financial year (Asunto-osakeyhtiölaki 1599/2009, 2009). Since most housing companies run a calendar year, meetings cluster in April–May. The section number has not been confirmed against Finlex.

Sources

  1. Asunto-osakeyhtiölaki 1599/2009, 6 luku — varsinainen yhtiökokous

    Asunto-osakeyhtiölaki 1599/2009 · 2009 · authority or research

  2. Aurinkosähkön tuotantokapasiteetti kasvoi yli neljänneksen vuonna 2025

    Energiavirasto · 2026 · authority or research

  3. Kesä 2026 — hellepäivät ja lämpötilat

    Ilmatieteen laitos · 1 September 2026 · authority or research

  4. Lämpöpumppumyynti vahvassa kasvussa Suomessa alkuvuonna, +63 %

    SULPU · 11 August 2026 · authority or research

  5. Lämpöpumppujen myynti palasi kasvu-uralle — vuosi 2025

    SULPU · 23 January 2026 · authority or research

  6. Lämpöpumppujen myynnissä pudotusta 14 % — vuosi 2024

    SULPU · 22 January 2025 · authority or research

  7. Kotitalousvähennys verotuksessa (VH/555/00.01.00/2026)

    Verohallinto · 10 February 2026 · authority or research

Figures verified 3 September 2026